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This year, US public debt could reach end game

Added: Thursday, March 4th 2010 at 10:14am by JoAnneMor
 
 
 

This year, US public debt could reach end game

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke issues the warning. Asian nations, China and India first, are no longer willing to purchase securities issued by the US Treasury, which this year has about US$ two trillion short-term debt to refinance. Beijing is buying gold instead.

Milan (AsiaNews) – For at least four years, AsiaNews has sounded the alarm bells against the risks due to the huge size reached by speculative finance [1] . In 2008, we said that the attempt to save US banks could push the US debt beyond the point of solvency (see Maurizio d’Orlando, “ US debt approaches insolvency . . .,” in AsiaNews 19 December 2008) [2] . Back them it could appear a bitoverblown, but now even US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke is warning the US Congress about the danger. In a statement before the House Financial Services Committee,[3] he said that the US public debt might no longer be sustainable very soon. Financial jargon aside, the subtitle of an article by The Washington Times —Stage is set in U.S. for a Greek tragedy—says it all. Interviewed for the article, Bernanke says the United States is likely to face a debt crisis like the one in Greece sooner than later, “not something that is 10 years away”.

 
In 2008, the size of the debt was such that it was quite clear that it was not sustainable. Now we have a timeframe to measure the likelihood of insolvency for the US public debt, and it is this year. The reason for that is described in an article whose title needs no explanation: “The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain”.[4]
 
The abyss of debt
 
By the end of 2010, the US Treasury will have to refinance US$ 2 trillion in short-term debt, plus additional deficit spending for this year, estimated to be around US$ 1.5 trillion (US$ 1.6 trillion today two months after the original article was published). Together, the US Treasury will need to borrow US$ 3.5 trillion (US$ 3.6 according to this writer) in just one year.
 
In 1999, two well-known economists—Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti—published a formula in an academic paper. Kept secret for a long time, it is designed to predict with precision when a country’s public debt will lead it to be insolvent. Called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule, it says that to avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100 per cent of their short-term foreign debt maturities.
 
According to the author, the United States holds 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (the world's largest holder). At November 2009 dollar values, that is about U$ 300 billion. [5] The US strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that is roughly US$ 58 billion worth of oil. According to the IMF, the US has US$ 136 billion in foreign currency reserves. Altogether, that is some US$ 500 billion in reserves (US$ 455.5 billion according to AsiaNews ).
 
Foreigners hold 44 per cent of US$ two trillion short-term US debt; that is US$ 880 billion. Total domestic savings in the United States are only around US$ 600 billion annually. If the United States needs to sell US$ 3.5 trillion (or US$ 3.6 trillion) in Treasury bills, and all domestic savings combined are put into US Treasury debt, the United States will still fall short by nearly US$ 3 trillion. Where is the rest of the money going to come from?
 
China ’s gold
 
Not China, nor India or any other Asian countries. Last year, China has in fact proportionately reduced its holdings in US Treasury bills in relation to rest of its reserves.
 
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) put up 191.3 tonnes of gold for sale. Some analysts had earlier suggested that China might be interested in buying it. Assets in dollars are estimated to represent over 70 per cent of China’s US$ 2.4 trillion foreign exchange reserves. As of April 2009, China held 1,054 tonnes of gold or 1.2 per cent of its GDP. That falls well below the world average. Indeed, gold represents less than 10 per cent of China’s total reserves.
 
According to the China Daily [6] , a semi-official mouthpiece for the Communist Party of China, China is not likely to buy IMF gold because it might upset the market. However, some Chinese commentators believe that Beijing should increase its gold reserves to 1,800. Sources told AsiaNews that China’s real goal is 4,000 tonnes.
 
The same is true for other Asian countries. For instance, India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka have bought 212 tonnes sold by the IMF.
 
As for Japan, it is likely to continue avoiding open confrontation with the United States; but the real intentions of its top financial circles might be inferred from a mysterious and unsolved incident that occurred last summer when two officials from Japan’s central bank were caught at the Italian-Swiss border town of Chiasso carrying US Treasury bills with a nominal value of US$ 134.5 billion.
 
Since 1945, the US dollar has been the main international reserve currency. In theory, this gave the US Federal Reserve the power to issue debt securities at will, with the value of international trading assets. However, the Greenspan-Guidotti rule restricts this power.
 
Whenever US insolvency becomes self-evident, no one dare say they did not know. The Greenspan who came up with the aforementioned formula is the same Alan Greenspan who chaired the Federal Reserve for 18 years and allowed speculative. i.e. “structured” finance to expand (based on poorly tested mathematical algorithms).
 
This is the same Greenspan who in 1977 wrote a prophetic PhD dissertation (which was removed from his university at his request in 1987, when he became Fed chairman) on how financial bubbles develop in real estate and then burst. Not only was Greenspan aware of it, but so were US top financial circles. In other periods of history, this could lead to accusations of “treason”, but today our sense of personal and collective responsibility is more faded and faint than before. Alternatively, perhaps, there is a level of ultimate responsibility that is darker and runs deeper that the guilt of any one individual.[7]
 
 
[1] See also Maurizio d’Orlando, “ Clashes between US, China and Iran may account for record gold prices ,” in AsiaNews , 12 May 2006; ibid, “ War scenarios [. . .] and the collapse of the world's financial system ” , in AsiaNews , 7 August 2006; ibid, “ Chinese stocks and the risk of economic crisis ,” in AsiaNews ,22 May 2007; see also other articles by AsiaNews on the subrime crisis, toxic securities, bank rescue , etc.
[2] See, by the same writer, “ Subprime lending to trigger world’s worst financial crisis since 1929 ,” in AsiaNews , 19 September 2007; ibid, “ Depth of the abyss of economic, social, political chaos ,” in AsiaNews , 30 September 2008; ibid, “ Paulson plan: useless and harmful to democracy ,” in AsiaNews , 6 October 2008; ibid, “ Theway out of the crisis is neither Left nor Right ,” in AsiaNews , 25/11/2008; ibid, “ Economic crisis: US, China and the coming monetary storm ,” in AsiaNews , 09/12/2008.
[3] See Patrice Hill, “ Bernanke delivers blunt warning on U.S. debt ,” in The Washington Times , 25 February 2010.
[4] See Porter Stansberry, “ The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain , in The Daily Crux , 24 November 2009.
[5] According to this writer’s calculations, the current estimated value is lower, US$ 261, 49 billion.

http://tinyurl.com/yjkjx2x

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UPDATE: WGC Says IMF Gold Sales Won't Be 'Disruptive'

 
By Matt Whittaker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The World Gold Council, a mining industry body, said Thursday it does not anticipate that the remaining International Monetary Fund gold sales will disrupt markets.

"The successful first phase sale to central banks had no impact on the smooth functioning of the gold market, and the remaining sales to be undertaken in phase two of the program are also not anticipated to be disruptive," the WGC said. "The sales by the IMF in phase two do not represent a net addition to supply because they will be accommodated under the Central Bank Gold Agreement."

Since 1999, European central banks have been allowed to sell up to 500 tons of the precious metal a year under the CBGA.

Last year, the IMF earmarked 403.3 metric tons of gold for sale to raise funds for poorer nations. It has sold more than half to India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius but wasn't able to find any more central bank buyers.

Late Wednesday, the IMF said it will soon begin to sell the remaining 191.3 tons of gold to the open market.

"In accordance with the priority of avoiding disruption of the gold market, the on-market sales will be conducted in a phased manner over time," the IMF said Wednesday in a statement.

Gold futures prices sank to $1,098.10 an ounce in electronic afterhours trading following the announcement. But as the market digested the news, the metal has recouped losses during Thursday floor trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The most-active April futures were down $3.80, or 0.3%, at $1,116.30 an ounce in recent trading.

The "initial shock" of the IMF announcement was wearing off, said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. "It'll be parsed out little by little."

Carlos Sanchez, associate director of research with CPM Group believes central banks will continue buying gold, even though the IMF isn't selling directly to the official sector this time.

While the IMF is making the gold available to the wider market, that "doesn't mean that central banks won't buy the gold," Sanchez said, noting the announcement comes at a time of already reduced CBGA sales.

Since the agreement was struck, European central banks have consistently sold more than 300 tons a year, but last year the amount fell to 157 tons. Sanchez said that leaves room for the absorption of the IMF sales.

http://tinyurl.com/yjgbnqt

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Note: This article says gold sale to benefit poor countries.

Remember we already know our gold was transferred and laundered throughy Citi to IMF. (See my post, "Something is up"

Now it's about to disappear altogether. BEWARE!


User Comments

ODUMBA and the progressive socialist want to crash the American currency and send us into debt  and become a third world country.

Economic failure looming. Our strength is through our pocketbooks and tax. Failure through debt or through our power of the pocketbook. Shut down the country with a tax revolt by Conservative leadership that can also restart the process. It is time for either that or guns. What do you know about John Roberts stepping down?

Seems to be rumors on rumors:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/04/john-roberts-stepping-dow_n_485842.html
Onradar just said he was not.....

I had already found it but thanks and whew!!! I took my post down.

Thanks! I read your post and went OMG! Be super careful...I think we are being set up. They are trying to rule us by fear and we MUST not let that happen.

I've thought for awhile..that a real TAX REVOLT would get thier attention...so what's up with Roberts???

RUMOR BY SOME BLOGS WAS THAT HE WAS STEPPING DOWN FOR PERSONAL REASONS. I THINK IT IS JUST RUMOR THOUGH.

My heart sung when I saw your notification...my first thought is his family has been threatened...geez I have such a distrust of all things Washington..

Rut. Rangel said hye wasn't stepping down, the night before he stepped down.

If that happens it's a full coup.

I'm not sure about Roberts. I am watching carefully. We all should.

Heck of a deal to have our own government screwing us.

Sent this one out JoAnne.

They have accelerated because we are catching on.

JoAnne don't know if you saw my retweet on this article...check it out!! from the Washington Times.." China Holds more US Debt than indicated..

http://ow.ly/1dgWY

That makes it even worse. Thank you for that link.

It is stupifying and astonishing how few Americans realize how very, very serious our National Debt situation is . . . and how Obama and the democrats obviously do not give a damn about the sevedre damage they are doing to our economy/way of life/national security.

They are tanking us on purpose.

As G. Gordon Liddy says, "Buy Gold or I'll kick your ass!"

Gold or barterables.

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